Structural Determinants of Changes in Unemployment in Poland during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Magdalena Knapińska

Streszczenie


Objective: The study analyses the determinants of the level and dynamics of unemployment in Poland in the years 2018–2021. The general hypothesis explored is: the level and structure of unemployment are influenced by the economic situation, the number of job offers reported by employers, migration and border movements, and social attitudes to employment. The article presents an analysis of whether these factors had an impact on the unemployment level in Poland during the COVID-19 pandemic by presenting the development of these measures in the Polish economy.

Research Design & Methods: The determinants were presented in the form of quantitative measures available for the quarters of the 2018–2021 period (sometimes the scope and availability of data resulted in a different time range). The data were obtained from public databases of the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and the results of surveys carried out by the Center for Public Opinion Research (CBOS) were used. To achieve the study’s aims, descriptive statistics, analysis, including logical analysis of cause-and-effect influences were used.

Findings: The results of the analysis of the presented research material led to conclusions confirming the relationship between the successive waves of disease and the introduction of economic restrictions and the shaping of measures of the economic situation, the number of job offers reported to labour, migration and border traffic offices, as well as social moods regarding employment and opportunities of finding a job. Further research on the causality and determinants of the unemployment situation could lead to the diagnosis of monthly data, or to search for the strength of the tested relationships using more advanced econometric methods.

Implications / Recommendations: The analysis included in this paper is an enrichment of the empirical explanation of the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. This pandemic is an interesting phenomenon not only in the medical sphere, but also carries a number of consequences affecting the world of the economy, which should be investigated with the greatest possible detail.

Contribution: This article deepens the understanding the pandemic period and its implication on the labour market and its influence on the unemployment in 2018–2021.


Słowa kluczowe


labour market, unemployment, COVID-19 pandemic, economic prosperity

Pełny tekst

PDF (English)

Literatura


Andersson F. W., Wadensjo E. (2022), COVID-19 and the Swedish Labor Market – A Register Perspective, IZA Discussion Paper no. 15167, https://docs.iza.org/dp15167.pdf (accessed: 31.03.2022).

Bal-Domańska B. (2022), The Impact of Macroeconomic and Structural Factors on the Unemployment of Young Women and Men, “Economic Change and Restructuring”, vol. 55, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-021-09341-9.

BDM (2022), Bank Danych Makroekonomicznych (Macroeconomic Data Bank), GUS, https://bdm.stat.gov.pl/ (accessed: 31.03.2022).

Bean C. R., Pissarides C. (1993), Unemployment Consumption and Growth, “European Economic Review”, vol. 37(4), https://doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(93)90093-p.

Begg D., Vernasca G., Fischer S., Dornbusch R. (2014), Makroekonomia, 5th ed., Polskie Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne, Warszawa.

Borjas G. J. (2013), Labour Economics, 6th ed., McGraw-Hill, New York.

Borjas G. J., Cassidy H. (2020), The Adverse Effect of the COVID-19 Labor Market Shock on Immigrant Employment, NBER Working Paper no 27243, http://www.nber.org/papers/w27243 (accessed: 31.03.2022).

Cassidy H. (2022), The Labor Market Impact of Covid-19 on Immigrants, IZA World of Labor, article no. 489, https://wol.iza.org/articles/labor-market-impact-of-covid-19-on-immigrants/long (accessed: 31.03.2022).

CBOS (2020), Nastroje na rynku pracy w pierwszej dekadzie grudnia, Komunikat z badań nr 166/2020, CBOS, Warszawa.

CBOS (2021), Nastroje na rynku pracy w pierwszej dekadzie grudnia, Komunikat z badań nr 166/2021, CBOS, Warszawa.

CBOS (2022), Nastroje na rynku pracy w pierwszej dekadzie lutego, Komunikat z badań. nr 24/2022, CBOS, Warszawa.

Ciżkowicz P., Kowalczuk M., Rzońca A. (2014), Heterogeneous Determinants of Local Unemployment in Poland, NBP Working Paper no. 188, Economic Institute, Warsaw.

Forsythe E., Kahn L. B., Lange F., Wiczer D. (2020), Labor Demand in the Time of Covid-19: Evidence from Vacancy Posting and UI Claims, “Journal of Public Economics”, vol. 189, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104238.

Gündoğmuş B., Bayir M. (2021), The Effect of International Migration on Unemployment: Empirical Analysis on the European Countries, “MANAS Journal of Social Studies”, vol. 10(4), https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.865460.

GUS (2019), Pojęcia stosowane w statystyce publicznej, https://stat.gov.pl/metainformacje/slownik-pojec/pojecia-stosowane-w-statystyce-publicznej/14,pojecie.html (accessed: 18.10.2019).

GUS (2021a), Rocznik statystyczny Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej 2021, GUS, Warszawa.

GUS (2021b), Ruch graniczny oraz wydatki cudzoziemców w Polsce i Polaków za granicą w III kwartale 2021 r., Informacje sygnalne, GUS, Warszawa.

GUS (2021c), Ruch graniczny oraz wydatki cudzoziemców w Polsce i Polaków za granicą w 2020 r., Analizy statystyczne, GUS, Warszawa.

GUS (2021d), Wybrane aspekty rynku pracy w Polsce. Aktywność ekonomiczna ludności przed i w czasie pandemii COVID-19, Analizy statystyczne, GUS, Warszawa.

Guven C., Sotirakopoulos P., Ulker A. (2020), Short-term Labour Market Effects of COVID-19 and the Associated National Lockdown in Australia: Evidence from Longitudinal Labour Fource Survey, GLO Discission Paper no 635, Global Labor Organization, Essen, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/223013 (accessed: 31.03.2022).

Hass H. de (2021), A Theory of Migration: The Aspirations-capabilities Framework, “Comparative Migration Studies”, vol. 9(8), https://doi.org/10.1186/s40878-020-00210-4.

Hobson J. A. (1904), The Problem of the Unemployed: An Enquiry and an Economic Policy, Methuen, London.

Jarmołowicz W., Knapińska M. (2005), Polityka państwa na rynku pracy w warunkach transformacji i integracji gospodarczej, Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej w Poznaniu, Poznań.

Kalinowska-Sufinowicz B., Knapińska M. (2022), Youth and Covid-19 in Chosen European Union Labour Markets: Form Junk Jobs to Unemployment, “Social Policy”, vol. 4, https://doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0015.8734.

Knapińska M. (2012), Wspólny europejski rynek pracy. Geneza – rozwój – funkcjonowanie, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu, Poznań.

Kotlorz D. (2007), Podstawowe pojęcia (in:) Ekonomia rynku pracy, D. Kotlorz (ed.), Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej im. Karola Adamieckiego w Katowicach, Katowice.

Kryńska E., Kwiatkowski E. (2013), Podstawy wiedzy o rynku pracy, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, Łódź.

Kwiatkowski E. (2001), Bezrobocie (in:) Podstawy ekonomii, E. Kwiatkowski, R. Milewski (eds), Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa.

Kwiatkowski E. (2002), Bezrobocie. Podstawy teoretyczne, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa.

Kwiatkowski E. (2009), Pojęcie i determinanty bezrobocia równowagi w świetle teorii rynku pracy (in:) Bezrobocie równowagi w gospodarce polskiej. Szacunki, tendencje i determinanty, W. Kwiatkowska (ed.), Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, Łódź.

Panaite N., Prohozescu N., Pintilescu C. (2022), The Determinants of Unemployment: Estimating a Vector Error Correction Model for Romania, “Journal of Eastern Europe Research in Business and Economics”, vol. 2022, article no. 186405, https://doi.org/10.5171/2022.186405.

Snowdon B., Vane H., Wynarczyk P. (1998), Współczesne nurty teorii makroekonomii, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa.

Standing G. (2021), The Precariat: The New Dangerous Class, Special Covid edition, I. B. Tauris & Company, London.

Ustawa z dnia 20 kwietnia 2004 r. o promocji zatrudnienia i instytucjach rynku pracy z późn. zm., Journal of Laws 2019, item 1482, 1622.

Woźniak B. (2008), Bezrobocie równowagi i nierównowagi a polityka państwa wobec rynku pracy, Akademia Ekonomiczna w Poznaniu, Poznań.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.15678/ZNUEK.2022.0996.0203