Employment in Poland’s Provinces in 2020, the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15678/ZNUEK.2022.0998.0402Keywords:
“triple 2’s” rule, employment, regions, economic activity sections, COVID-19Abstract
Objective: The aim of the paper is to evaluate the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the employment level, gender-wise, in Poland’s provinces.
Research Design & Methods: The “triple 2’s” method is used to estimate the tendencies in the employment level observed until 2019, which are compared with the real values in 2020. Forecasts are calculated with trend function, autoregression models and simple dynamic indices. Forecasting errors are standardised by standard error of estimation.
Findings: The dynamics of the total employment in Poland’s provinces as well as employment dynamics in groups of sections are analysed. The following groups of economic activity are considered: 1) agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishery, 2) industry and construction, 3) trade; automotive services; transport, warehouse management; accommodation, gastronomy; information and communication, 4) finance, insurance; real estate, 5) and other services. The number of employees is expressed per population in productive age (18–64 for men, and 18–59 for women). Changes observed in 2020 are compared to forecasts from trends estimated for 2013–2019 period.
Implications / Recommendations: The “triple 2’s” method makes it possible to identify interventions in employment time series. The labour market’s reaction to the pandemic differed by province and group of economic activity sections. In half of provinces, employment varied among both men and women. In three provinces (Lubelskie, Podlaskie, Zachodniopomorskie) the women’s rates varied significantly less while in two (Mazowieckie, Pomorskie), no impact was revealed. Interestingly, in some cases the interventions were positive.
Contribution: First analysis in such design plus modification of “triple 2’s” rule. Identification of changes in the dynamics of the total employment rate, by gender, and by section group in the first year of the pandemic.
Downloads
References
Adzic S., Al-Mansour J. (2021), The Negative Impact of Covid-19 on Firms: Insights from Serbia, „Eastern European Economics”, vol. 59(5), https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.202.1953387.
Alon T., Coskun S., Doepke M., Koll D., Tertilt M. (2022), From Mancession to Shecession: Women’s Employment in Regular and Pandemic Recessions, „NBER Macroeconomics Annual”, vol. 36, https://doi.org/10.1086/718660.
Alon T., Doepke M., Olmstead-Rumsey J., Tertilt M. (2020), This Time It’s Different: The Role of Women’s Employment in a Pandemic Recession, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 13562, https://doi.org/10.3386/w27660.
Andrew A., Cattan S., Costa Dias M., Farquharson C., Kraftman L., Krutikova S., Phimister A., Sevilla A. (2020), How Are Mothers and Fathers Balancing Work and Family under Lockdown?, Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), Briefing Note no. 290.
Ang J.P., Dong F. (2022), The Effects and Counter-Effects of Unemployment and Stringency Responses to COVID-19: An International Analysis Using Simultaneous Equations Models, „Applied Economics”, vol. 54(11), https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1975634.
Atkeson A. (2020), What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 26867, https://doi.org/10.3386/w26867.
Béland L., Brodeur A., Wright T. (2020), COVID-19, Stay-at-Home Orders and Employment: Evidence from CPS Data, IZA Discussion Papers no. 13282, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3608531.
Bieszk-Stolorz B., Dmytrów K. (2022), Assessment of the Similarity of the Situation in the EU Labour Markets and Their Changes in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic, „Sustainability”, vol. 14(6), https://doi.org/10.3390/su14063646.
Blundell J., Machin S. (2020), Self-employment in the Covid-19 Crisis. A CEP Covid-19 Analysis, Centre for Economic Performance, Paper no. 003, London School of Economics and Political Science, London.
Borland J. (2020), Female and Male Employment during Recessions in Australia, „Labour Market Snapshot”, nr 62.
Cai M., Luo J. (2020), Influence of COVID-19 on Manufacturing Industry and Corresponding Countermeasures from Supply Chain Perspective, „Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University (Science)”, vol. 25(4), https://doi.org/10.1007/s12204-020-2206-z.
Callegari B., Feder Ch. (2022), The Long-term Economic Effects of Pandemics: Toward an Evolutionary Approach, „Industrial and Corporate Change”, vol. 31(3), https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dtab064.
Carlsson-Szlezak P., Reeves M., Swartz P. (2020), What Coronavirus Could Mean for the Global Economy, „Harvard Business Review”, https://hbr.org/2020/03/what-coronavirus-could-mean-for-the-global-economy (data dostępu: 19.08.2022).
Celbiş M.G, Wong P-H., Kourtit K., Nijkamp P. (2022), Impacts of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Older-Age Cohorts in European Labor Markets: A Machine Learning Exploration of Vulnerable Groups, „Regional Science Policy & Practice”, https://doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12520.
Chen S., Igan D., Pierri N., Presbitero A.F. (2020), Tracking the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Mitigation Policies in Europe and the United States, IMF Working Paper no. 20, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513549644.001.
Deb P., Furceri D., Ostry J.D., Tawk N. (2020), The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures, „Covid Economics”, nr 24.
Doerr S., Gambacorta L. (2020), Covid-19 and Regional Employment in Europe, „BIS Bulletin”, nr 16.
Fana M., Torrejón Pérez S., Fernández-Macías E. (2020), Employment Impact of Covid-19 Crisis: From Short Term Effects to Long Terms Prospects, „Journal of Industrial and Business Economics”, vol. 47(3), https://doi.org/10.1007/s40812-020-00168-5.
Gavriluță N., Grecu S-P., Chiriac H.C. (2022), Sustainability and Employability in the Time of COVID-19. Youth, Education and Entrepreneurship in EU Countries, „Sustainability”, vol. 14(3), https://doi.org/10.3390/su14031589.
Golder U., Rumaly N., Shahriar A.H.M., Alam M.J., Biswas A.A., Islam M.N. (2022), The Impact of COVID-19 on the Volatility of Bangladeshi Stock Market: Evidence from GJR-GARCH Model, „Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business”, vol. 9(4), https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2022.vol9.no4.0029.
Harris J.L., Sunley P., Evenhuis E., Martin R., Pike A., Harris R. (2020), The Covid-19 Crisis and Manufacturing: How Should National and Local Industrial Strategies Respond?, „Local Economy: The Journal of the Local Economy Policy Unit”, vol. 35(4), https://doi.org/10.1177/0269094220953528.
Hezam I.M. (2021), COVID-19 and Unemployment: A Novel Bi-level Optimal Control Model, „Computers, Materials and Continua”, vol. 67(1), https://doi.org/10.32604/cmc.2021.014710.
Hughes K.D., Saunders Ch., Denier N. (2022), Lockdowns, Pivots & Triple Shifts: Early Challenges and Opportunities of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Women Entrepreneurs, „Journal of Small Business & Entrepreneurship”, vol. 34(5), https://doi.org/10.1080/08276331.2022.2042657.
Kong E., Prinz D. (2020), Disentangling Policy Effects Using Proxy Data: Which Shutdown Policies Affected Unemployment during the COVID-19 Pandemic?, „Journal of Public Economics”, vol. 189, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104257.
Kraus S., Clauss T., Breier M., Gast J., Zardini A., Tiberius V. (2020), The Economics of COVID-19: Initial Empirical Evidence on How Family Firms in Five European Countries Cope with the Corona Crisis, „International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behaviour & Research”, vol. 26(5), https://doi.org/10.1108/ijebr-04-2020-0214.
Lenoël C., Young G. (2021), Modelling the Impact of Covid-19 on the UK Economy: An Application of a Disaggregated New-Keynesian Model, NIESR Discussion Paper no. 531.
Lopes A.S., Carreira P. (2021), COVID-19 Impact on Job Losses in Portugal: Who Are the Hardest-hit?, „International Journal of Manpower”, vol. 43(5), https://doi.org/10.1108/IJM-06-2021-0384.
Lopes A.S., Sargento A., Carreira P. (2021), Vulnerability to COVID-19 Unemployment in the Portuguese Tourism and Hospitality Industry, „International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management”, vol. 33(5), https://doi.org/10.1108/ijchm-11-2020-1345.
Magno F., Cassia F. (2021), Firms’ Responses to the COVID-19 Crisis in the Tourism Industry: Effects on Customer Loyalty and Economic Performance, „An International Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Research”, vol. 33(2), https://doi.org/10.1080/1303291.2021.1916551.
Malliet P., Reynès F., Landa G., Hamdi-Cherif M., Saussay A. (2020), Assessing Short-term and Long-term Economic and Environmental Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis in France, „Environmental Resource Economic”, vol. 76(4), https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-020-00488-z.
Marinovic Matovic I., Lazarevic A. (2021), Business Revenue and Job Retention during Covid-19 Crisis in Manufacturing Sector in Serbia, „Business Excellence and Management”, vol. 11, Special issue 2, https://doi.org/10.24818/beman/2021.s.i.2-09.
Markowska M., Sokołowski A. (2021), Impact of COVID-19 on Employment Level and Structure in European Union Countries, referat wygłoszony na V międzynarodowej konferencji naukowej pn. „Globalizacja i regionalizacja we współczesnym świecie: nowe wyzwania w dobie niepewności geopolitycznej”, Kraków, 23–24 września 2021.
Meinen P., Serafini R. (2021), The Economic Impact of the Pandemic – Drivers of Regional Differences, „Economic Bulletin Boxes”, no. 1, European Central Bank, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2021/html/ecb.ebbox202101_03~0a3fc84b10.en.html (data dostępu: 18.08.2022).
Moscarini G., Postel-Vinay F., Fujita S. (2020), The Labour Market Policy Response to COVID-19 Must Save Aggregate Matching Capital, VOX CEPR Policy Portal, 30 March.
Munawar H.S., Khan S.I., Ullah F., Kouzani A.Z., Mahmud M.A.P. (2021), Effects of COVID-19 on the Australian Economy: Insights into the Mobility and Unemployment Rates in Education and Tourism Sectors, „Sustainability”, vol. 13(20), https://doi.org/10.3390/su132011300.
Radzi A.R., Rahman R.A., Almutairi S. (2022), Modeling COVID-19 Impacts and Response Strategies in the Construction Industry: PLS–SEM Approach, „International Journal Environmental Research Public Health”, vol. 19(9), https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19095326.
Raimo N., Martínez-Córdoba P.-J., Benito B., Vitolla F. (2021), The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Labor Market: An Analysis of Supply and Demand in the Spanish Municipalities, „Sustainability”, vol. 13(23), https://doi.org/10.3390/su132312996.
Rubio-Valdehita S., Rodríguez-López A.M., Marín A. (2021), Concern about the Effects of the Pandemic Caused by COVID-19 in the Retail Sector in Spain. Differences between Men and Women (w:) Proceedings of the 3rd International Electronic Conference on Environmental Research and Public Health – Public Health Issues in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic, 11–25 January 2021, https://doi.org/10/3390/ECERPH-3-09035.
Slade M.E. (2022), Many Losers and a Few Winners: The Impact of COVID-19 on Canadian Industries and Regions, „Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d’économique”, vol. 55(1), https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12539.
Sodhi H.S. (2020), Effect of Corona Virus on the Manufacturing and Supply Chain Industry across World, „Industrial Engineering Journal”, vol. 13(6), https://doi.org/10.26488/iej.13.6.1251.
Sokołowski A. (2013), Bezpośrednie estymatory modalnej, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie, Kraków.
Song L., Zhou Y. (2020), The COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on the Global Economy: What Does It Take to Turn Crisis into Opportunity?, „China & World Economy”, vol. 28(4), https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12349.
Stojcic N. (2020), The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on the Export Competitiveness of Manufacturing Firms in Croatia, „Economic Thought and Practice”, vol. 29(2).
Strauss I., Isaacs G., Rosenberg J. (2021), The Effect of Shocks to GDP on Employment in SADC Member States during COVID-19 Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model, „African Development Review”, vol. 33(1), https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12524.
Webster A., Khorana S., Pastore F. (2022), The Effects of COVID-19 on Employment, Labor Markets, and Gender Equality in Central America, „IZA Journal of Development and Migration”, vol. 13(1), https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2022-0001.
